Posted by: BHANDARI SUSHIL on: April 11, 2009
BY: SUSHIL KUMAR BHANDARI
Introduction
Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period i.e. decades or longer (www.epa.gov). It is widely found to denote the extreme climate variability of events and state of climatic condition. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer.
Climate change may result from:
• natural factors, such as changes in the sun’s intensity or slow changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun;
• natural processes within the climate system (e.g. changes in ocean circulation);
• human activities that change the atmosphere’s composition (e.g. through burning fossil fuels) and the land surface (e.g. deforestation, reforestation, urbanization, desertification, etc.)
Present Trend
Overall, the last 100 years (1906–2005), global temperature has increased by 0.74°C.It is predicted that the rise of temperature in the Indian continent in the end of 21st century will sore up to 3.5 to 5.5o C (IPCC 2001).11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years since then (Kettunen et al., 2007). Analysis of existing temperature records already shows an increasing trend of 0.0597 ºC/yr in Nepal. The projected changes above the baseline in such models show average increases of 1.2ºC for 2030, 1.7ºC for 2050 and 3.0ºC for 2100(OECD,2003). The climate variability record of Katmandu valley shows significant changes over recent five year span. The maximum temperature during January of 2004 was recorded 18.30 but it has rise to 24 in this year. The cold days were marked to have temperature of -10 C in 2004 but the coldness did not shrink below 1.20 C ( Kantipur, Jan 22,2008).
Evidence and Indicators
Climate change is evident more significantly in the recent decade. Both physical and biological events and processes point towards the change. Global warming, glaciations, and ocean variability indicate such process of unifocal changes. Biological components such as pheology, “Black beaching’, and tree-line shift (Xu Jianchu et. al., 2007) are the most sensitive indicators to respond towards the changing climate. Most of the evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred from changes in indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, dendrochronology, ice cores, sea level change, and glacial retreat.There are many observations of increasing air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising sea levels.
Industrialization is a boon of development to certain context. Yet, the human incapability to predict its future consequences of mismanagement of byproducts such as gaseous exhausts is infact, leading towards destruction of the only ‘living planet’. Green house gases (GHGs) are scientifically proved as the most critical players in global warming. This is mainly due to human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, land use change, and agriculture. For instance, global greenhouse gas emissions have grown markedly since pre-industrial times, with a 70% increase from 1970 to 2004 alone. The figure leads to significant high and rose up to 370ppm of CO2 from 270 in the onset of the revolution.Without the greenhouse effect, Earth’s average temperature would be -0.4°F (-18°C), rather than the present 59°F (15°C).
Population growth rate is in line with the trend of sky rocketing. Commercialization and consumerization of human society is blamed to influence the exploitation of the natural resources and alter the natural process of regeneration and balance. In addition, mass destruction of forest in the recent decade has fuel up the emission trend. The natural sink of carbon has turned to the source of CO2, which is acknowledged recently as one of the leading cause of global warming. It accounts of 18-25 percent of overall anthropogenic emission of the gas.
Consequences
Climate change will affect all natural and man-made systems to some extent. For instance, it is an observed phenomenon that the rise in temperature has increased melting of snow and glaciers retreat, hydrological and biological systems are changing. Migrations are starting earlier, and species geographic ranges are shifting towards the poles. However, the impacts on individual sectors or regions will vary depending on the sensitivity of the system and its adaptive capacity. Experts of climate change indicate the following sectors most likely to bear direct and cumulative effects as consequences (Australian Greenhouse Office in 2005):-
• Agriculture – includes cropping and livestock sectors. A study carried by UNDP reports that agro products will decrease by 30% by mid of this century.
• Biodiversity – includes national reserves, species diversity, ecosystems. It is predicted that 2.4% of biodiversity of Nepal may be lost with climate change (MoPE, 2004).
• Coasts – includes fisheries, marine life (Great Barrier Reef), coastal infrastructure,
• Forests -includes natural and plantation forests
• Settlements – includes infrastructure, local government, planning, human health, transport, energy, emergency services
• Water – includes drought, water quality, water supplies, and variability of river runoff. GLOFs may be a critical consequence of climate change. 15 GLOFs outburst cases has been reported in Nepal (Samjwal et.al., 2007).
National Policy on climate change
At the national level, Nepal has no specific policy documents dealing with climate change. Nepal’s National Communication to the UN Convention on Biodiversity (UNCBD), to the UN Convention on Combating Desertification as well as its report to the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) make only marginal references to climate change. Nepal is a signatory party of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) but the strategic deal with the climate change is yet realized in legislation. Sustainable Development Agenda (SDAN) acknowledges the vulnerability situation of Nepal to climate change, natural disasters, and environmental degradation but concrete action plan to mitigate the climate change and its consequences are far from the priority.
Way Forward
It is a high time to develop a subjective and quantified ranking of the probable sector of climate change based on impact certainty, urgency, and severity. Government can apply a wider variety of policy tools to create incentives for mitigation action. It can range from regulation, taxation, tradable permit schemes, subsidies, and to voluntary agreements. It is important to consider the environmental impacts of policies and instruments, effectiveness, and institutional feasibility.
National policy should be able to lay the foundation for future mitigation efforts. Adaptation strategy is linked to the immediate short-term action oriented steps to reduce the severity of shocks. Mitigation strategy should be envisaged and formulated in such a way so that it reduces the impacts and build resilience capacity. Natural barriers to such change should remain the focal agenda in strategic vision. Development policies need to contribute to both climate change mitigation and sustainable development through remarkable drive to energy efficiency, renewable energies, and conservation of natural habitats is essential. In general, sustainable development can increase the capacity for adaptation and mitigation, and reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.
Adaptation Adjustments in ecological, social, and economic systems in response to the effects of changes in climate are the most for reducing frequency and severity of impacts. As far as vulnerable ecosystems are concerned, adaptation requires flexible management practices to enhance the inherent adaptability of species and habitats. It is expected to reduce trends in human-induced pressures and reduce significantly vulnerability to climate variability and change.
a) Formulation of National Adaptation Plan of Action with due care of vulnerable sectors
and prioritize areas of initiatives and action
b) Supporting community led adaptation methods and practices
c) Integrated approach of water resource management
d) Human ecosystem approach to development
However, as the temperature increases, adaptation alone is not expected to be able to cope will all projected effects. Mitigation measures help to avoid, reduce or delay impacts, and should be implemented in order to ensure that adaptation capacity is not exceeded.
Mitigation
a) Reduce emission through fixation of emission ceiling target applicable to industries and help achieve
the goal through innovation of eco-friendly technology
b) Formulation and implementation of legislation and necessary legal instruments based
on strategy such as Payments for Environment Service and Polluter Pay Principle
c) Development of alternative technologies in the energy sectors
d) Increase carbon sequestration, conservation and substitution through modification of
land use
d) Compatible national policy development with Kyoto Protocol (KP) and beyond for
emission reduction
Scientific support
a) Development of regional climatic variation model and establishment of scientific
research centers
b) Strategy formulation on disaster risk mitigation and reduction strategy with focus on climate change.
